2009 Predictions – Review

Like every other blog on the planet, I’m going to review the predictions I laid down for 2009 at the start of the year. It’s a fun process that reflects back on the last 365 days and determines how right or wrong I was about it all. Here’s what I predicted:

SW:TOR, STO and DCU Online won’t be released until 2010.
Bingo. Although, to be honest, a pretty easy one to predict.

WoW won’t see an expansion until 2010 and the dual talent system will be delayed until the Spring.
Bingo again… and yep, another easy thing to predict. The dual talent system was delayed until the Spring and was extremely well received when it arrived. How did we ever live without it?

EQ2 will release a Luclin expansion in November.
Got this one completely wrong. EQ2 gets it’s new expansion in February 2010 and it’s about Erudin, not Luclin. Oh well, it was a good guess.

EQ will open a new nostaliga server in March.
It had already been announced that Everquest would open a new server in the Spring but the type wasn’t chosen until May. So was I right about it being a “nostalgia” server? I guess you could say so. The winning choice was the 51/50 server – all new characters start at level 51 with 50 AAs. I’m going to count that as nostalgic.

LotRO continues steadily along and nothing exciting at all happens…
Yep, right on the money here. OK, it did get the Mirkwood expansion but otherwise it’s been a pretty dull yet steady year for LotRO.

AoC gets a new expansion in the Spring.
Totally wrong… which is surprising actually. I was sure AoC would get an expansion in 2009 as the game desperately needs one. And still no release date for Rise of the Godslayer but hopefully it’s not too far off.

WAR gets get cross realm scenarios (battle grounds) and announces a new expansion in the Summer.
Odd one this as I managed to predict the WoW cross realm LFG system (in a round about kinda way). Still no expansion plans for WAR which is a shame.

Vanguard gets a new expansion and just won’t die.
50/50 here. No expansion for VG but it’s still alive and (barely) kicking.

Tabula Rasa closes.
Y’know, I honestly can’t remember if I knew about this before I predicted it. It’s quite possible so I’m inclined to scratch this off the list.

Darkfall doesn’t really amount to anything.
Call me an oracle cause I got this one absolutely right. To be fair, not hard to predict that a low-budget, independent hardcore sandbox RPG wouldn’t be a massive success.

Overall, not a bad score I’d reckon although I don’t think my 2009 predictions were anything radical or exciting but, then again, neither was 2009. I’ll post my 2010 predictions soon, taking a stab at how the forthcoming year will pan out.

How did your 2009 predictions do?

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  5. 2009 – A Bad Year For MMOs?

12 Comments

  1. Longasc says:

    I started playing LOTRO between Aion Beta Weekends and to my own surprise went back to LOTRO after Aion release.

    Pretty good predictions on your part. I did not make any predictions and was not playing any MMO in the first months of 2009, actually.

    Some say 2010 will be a good year for MMO gaming – but besides a late year Cataclysm, they predict GW2, Diablo 3, SWTOR etc. etc. etc. to be delayed to 2011. So what? :)

    All hopes seem to hinge on Star Trek Online becoming a good game (I absolutely have no faith in Cryptic in this regard, while I really would like to love this game! :( ) and I wonder if LOTRO’s “Volume 3″ will finally bring more areas to Middle Earth. As big as Golden Forest and Mirkwood are, I tell you that Skirmishes cannot make up for other content (I almost said true content) and that I really need Dunland/Rohan/whatever. The Mirkwood is more an appetizer, but something the size of Moria or even more would not be bad. There are enough areas of Middle Earth left to be filled on the map, after all.

    • Gordon says:

      I think 2010 will be a good year even if we don’t see SW:TOR and Diablo 3. I agree with your views on Star Trek Online but maybe it will surprise us yet.

      As for LotRO, yeah it’s a game that keeps enticing me to get stuck into it. I think I might give it a shot soon – I’m playing through some single player games (Fallout 3!) at the moment but don’t really have a strong desire to get into WoW again, at least not until Cataclysm comes out. If they added evil races like Orcs to LotRO as playable characters, I’d be alll over it like a rash.

  2. Eh, I wouldn’t say Darkfall amounted to nothing. It launched and it’s updating, and that’s a lot for an independent PvP-focused game. Is it beating WoW? No, it’s probably not even beating mid-tier type games. But it’s still going. I’d say it amounted to something, but it’s not high-profile. Without knowing exact numbers, I suspect Darkfall is maybe a bit behind Fallen Earth, which is also doing respectably.

    Just posting something polite before someone like SynCaine comes along and tries to tear you a new one. :)

    • Gordon says:

      Ah yes quite right :) I was actually saything the very same thing myself to Tobold the other day. I guess you caught me with my pants down here :) I should really quallify the statement and say something like “not a huge success like WoW” etc cause in principle I actually agree with you. If they’re turning a profit and people like the game, then it’s all good right?

      And I don’t think Syncaine reads my blog so I’m not worried about that :D

  3. Jackie says:

    Small little correction… The 51/50 server opened June 30th, not May. But.. I’m just splitting hairs. :)

  4. Good round up. I had a similiar fate, I’ll have mine up tomorrow (I still have today for some of my predictions to prove out!).

  5. Angry Gamer says:

    I was dead on mine

    “Spellborn and Darkfall will flop hard. These games can barely get released in the North American market let alone hold a substantial playerbase. One of them will go free to play.”

    “I think that Sony will close Matrix Online and Pirates of the Burning Sea will sail off into the sunset”

    (CLOSE! But lets face it, no one really plays Pirates of the Burning Sea)

    And a few others I nailed

  6. Beleg Firebreath says:

    51/50 is nostalgic? I think it’s the exact opposite — more or less skipping the nostalgic content and going straight to the newer stuff. A nostalgic server would see a level cap around 50, imho.

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